Expert Comment — Security Programme
January 2026
A decade after the peak of the Islamic State’s so-called “caliphate,” the global terrorism landscape has undergone a profound and lethal transformation. The epicentre has decisively shifted from the Middle East to the conflict-ridden Sahel region of Africa, while terrorist organisations have evolved into more decentralised, digitally savvy and globally connected networks. This analysis, drawing on data from the Global Terrorism Index and security assessments, examines the new faces of this persistent threat.
The New Geography of Terror
The most significant trend is the geographic concentration of violence. The Sahel region is now the undisputed epicentre of global terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide. Countries including Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger bear the brunt of this violence. In 2023, Burkina Faso alone accounted for nearly a quarter of global terrorism deaths, suffering a 68 per cent increase in fatalities despite a decrease in the number of attacks — indicating rising lethality.
Conversely, traditional hotspots have seen dramatic improvements. Iraq, once a top-ranked country, recorded a 99 per cent drop in terrorism deaths since 2007 and is no longer among the ten worst-impacted nations. This stark contrast underscores how localised conflict, governance failures and international intervention shape the threat map.
| Rank | Country | Key Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burkina Faso | New epicentre; deaths increased 68% in 2023 |
| 2 | Afghanistan | Impact decreased but remains high |
| 3 | Mali | Core Sahel state; home to fast-growing jihadist groups |
| 4 | Pakistan | Threats from TTP (fastest-growing group) and IS-K |
| 5 | Syria | Significant resurgence of IS attacks in 2024 |
| 6 | Somalia | IS-S affiliate has doubled in size |
| 7 | Nigeria | Severe impact from Boko Haram and ISWAP |
The Evolution of the Islamic State
The Islamic State exemplifies the adaptive nature of modern terrorism. Having lost its territorial caliphate, it has morphed into a hybrid organisational model that balances regional autonomy with centralised ideological guidance. This structure makes it both resilient and difficult to combat. IS has expanded its operations to at least 22 countries. Its deadliest affiliates are now outside the Middle East: IS-Khorasan in Afghanistan is assessed as the branch with the greatest extra-regional threat, while IS Sahel Province has grown 4 to 6 times in strength since 2018.
Recruitment and radicalisation have moved decisively online. IS exploits social media and encrypted messaging to target vulnerable demographics, particularly young people. Security agencies in Europe report that one in five terror suspects is under 18, with cases involving teenagers as young as 14 planning attacks. The radicalisation timeline has shortened alarmingly, often happening entirely outside the view of authorities.
The terrorist threat has not been defeated but has fragmented, decentralised and relocated. Effective response now requires not only military solutions but a far greater focus on countering online radicalisation and addressing the root causes of conflict.
Emerging Trends and Future Challenges
Several interconnected trends are defining the next phase of the threat. Over 90 per cent of terrorist attacks and 98 per cent of deaths in 2023 occurred in active conflict zones. Instability creates vacuums that groups exploit and fuels propaganda that aids recruitment. Meanwhile, as great-power competition diverts international attention and resources, coordinated counter-terrorism efforts are waning at precisely the moment when groups like IS are most successfully regionalising their operations in areas with weak governance.
The global fight against terrorism is at a crossroads. The threat has not been defeated but has fragmented, decentralised and relocated. Effective response now requires not only military and security solutions but also a far greater focus on countering online radicalisation, addressing the root causes of conflict and rebuilding international cooperation that has lately frayed. The resilience of terrorist networks guarantees that this evolving challenge will remain a defining feature of global security for the foreseeable future.