Expert Comment — East Asia Programme
2026-07-09
TThe Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous flashpoint in the international system. The combination of unresolved territorial claims, military build up on both sides, and nationalist sentiment on both sides of the strait creates a volatile mix that could easily escalate into armed conflict. In October 2025, the world came closer to war in the Taiwan Strait than most people realise. Chinese fighter aircraft crossed the median line of the strait in force, US Navy vessels responded, and a series of close encounters brought the two militaries within moments of a shooting conflict. The crisis was defused through diplomatic backchannels, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
The Military Balance
The military balance in the Taiwan Strait has shifted dramatically over the past decade. China’s People’s Liberation Army has modernised its forces, closed the qualitative gap with US forces in several key domains, and expanded its quantitative advantage. The PLA Navy now operates the world’s largest fleet by hull count. The PLA Air Force has developed advanced fifth generation fighter aircraft and is building a fleet of long range bombers. China’s anti access area denial capabilities, including ballistic and cruise missiles, advanced air defences, and anti ship missiles, are designed to prevent or delay US military intervention in a Taiwan contingency.
The US Response
The United States has responded to China’s military build up with a series of investments and strategic adjustments. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative has received over $17 billion in funding. The US Marine Corps has restructured its forces for distributed operations in the Pacific. The Navy has increased its forward presence and invested in unmanned systems. The Air Force has dispersed its assets and invested in long range strike capabilities. The strategic question that neither side can answer is whether deterrence will hold when it matters most. The 2025 crisis demonstrated that the risk of escalation is real and that the management of crises in the Taiwan Strait requires careful coordination between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei.