Expert Comment — Asia Programme 22 May 2026 Key Findings Japan’s core CPI is projected at 2.8 per cent for fiscal 2026, with the BOJ having raised rates above zero for the first time in 17 years. Japan’s nominal GDP is about to be overtaken by India, slipping to fifth place globally — a symbolic […]
Japan’s Economic Crossroads: Growth, Inflation, and the Search for a New Model Read More »
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-05-18 TBefore February 2022, Russia sold approximately 150 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe annually at prices indexed to oil, generating over $50 billion in annual revenue. By early 2026, pipeline gas exports to Europe had fallen to near zero. The loss of the European market has forced
Expert Comment — Asia Programme 12 May 2026 Key Findings Taiwan’s unemployment rate fell to 3.3 per cent in early 2026, among the lowest in Asia, driven by the semiconductor boom. The fertility rate of 1.1 births per woman is among the lowest globally, with the working-age population shrinking since 2015. Over-reliance on the semiconductor
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 2026-05-05 TThe International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear programme contains a number that tells the entire story: 206.4 kilograms. That is the amount of uranium Iran has enriched to 60 per cent U-235, a level that has no credible civilian application and that represents
Expert Comment — Russia and Eurasia Programme 30 April 2026 Key Findings Urals crude has surged past $100 per barrel, generating an estimated $1.5 billion in additional daily revenue for the Russian budget. The Russian Ministry of Economy has downgraded oil and gas production forecasts for 2026-2029 due to sanctions and infrastructure damage. Russia’s loss
Russia’s Energy Paradox: Soaring Oil Prices Mask a Struggling Industry Read More »
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-04-22 TThe Northern Sea Route runs from Murmansk on Russia’s Barents Sea coast through the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait. At approximately 6,000 nautical miles between Rotterdam and Shanghai, it is roughly 4,000 nautical miles shorter than the
Expert Comment — Europe Programme 16 April 2026 Key Findings EU average unemployment stands at 6 per cent — near historic lows — but youth unemployment exceeds 20 per cent in Spain, Greece and Italy. Nearly half of young workers aged 15-24 in the EU are on temporary contracts, compared to just 12 per cent
Europe’s Employment Paradox: Low Overall Unemployment Conceals a Generation at Risk Read More »
Expert Comment — Pacific Programme 2026-04-08 TAustralia’s nuclear submarine programme, the most expensive defence project in the country’s history at over $300 billion, faces a fundamental constraint that no amount of money can quickly solve. The programme requires a workforce of 5,000 to 7,000 nuclear-qualified engineers, technicians, welders, and quality assurance specialists. Australia’s nuclear industry
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 3 April 2026 Key Findings Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by more than 95 per cent in March 2026 following Iranian threats to commercial shipping. Global oil prices surged from $72 to $118 per barrel — the largest single-month increase in history. The World Bank projects global
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-03-25 TIn 2018, the year before the US-China trade war began, trade between the United States and China exceeded $660 billion. By 2025, it had fallen to approximately $520 billion, a decline of over 20 per cent. Over the same period, trade between the United States and its allies in
