The Madrasa Pipeline: Why 3.5 Million Pakistani Children Learn Only the Quran While the Country Loses $50 Billion a Year in GDP Growth

Expert Comment — South Asia Programme

2026-02-20

IIn the rural districts of southern Punjab and northern Sindh, a parallel education system operates largely invisible to the Pakistani state and the international community. An estimated 3.5 million children attend madrasas, religious seminaries where the curriculum is dominated by Islamic studies. While some madrasas provide a rigorous education that includes modern subjects alongside religious instruction, many limit their teaching to the memorisation of the Quran, Arabic grammar, and Islamic jurisprudence. Children who spend five to seven years in these institutions emerge without the literacy, numeracy, or technical skills necessary to participate in Pakistan’s modern economy. They are not counted in Pakistan’s official education statistics, not measured by international learning assessments, and not prepared for the 21st-century workforce. The madrasa system is the most visible symptom of Pakistan’s education crisis, but it is far from the only one.

Pakistan’s total of out-of-school children is 22.8 million, the second-highest in the world after Nigeria. The madrasa population of 3.5 million represents approximately 15 per cent of this total. The remaining 19.3 million children are simply not in any form of education at all. Pakistan’s net enrolment rate at the primary level is approximately 58 per cent, meaning that over 40 per cent of primary-age children are not in school. The completion rate is even lower: fewer than half of children who enrol in primary school complete it. The quality of education for those who remain in school is poor, with Pakistan ranking near the bottom of international assessments in reading, mathematics, and science. The combination of low enrolment, low completion, and low learning outcomes creates a human capital crisis that constrains Pakistan’s economic development.

The economic cost of this crisis is staggering. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan’s learning poverty rate — the proportion of ten-year-olds who cannot read a simple text — is 67 per cent. Countries that have reduced learning poverty have experienced sustained economic growth. Pakistan’s failure to educate its children is costing the economy an estimated $3.4 billion annually in lost GDP, a figure that compounds over time as each uneducated cohort enters the workforce with limited skills. The total cumulative cost of Pakistan’s education deficit over the past two decades exceeds $50 billion in forgone GDP growth.

The madrasa system is deeply embedded in Pakistan’s political and social structure. Many madrasas are funded through zakat (Islamic charitable giving) and donations from wealthy individuals and Gulf-based charities. They provide free education, free meals, and in many cases free accommodation to children from poor families who cannot afford the costs of government schools, including uniforms, textbooks, and exam fees. For the poorest families, the madrasa is not a choice but the only option. The state has struggled to regulate the madrasa sector due to political resistance from religious parties and the logistical challenge of registering and inspecting thousands of institutions across the country.

The madrasa system fills a gap created by the state’s failure to provide universal education. But in filling this gap, it perpetuates a cycle of poverty and limited opportunity that constrains Pakistan’s development.

The connection between madrasa education and extremism is complex and contested, but it cannot be ignored. Some madrasas have been linked to militant organisations, particularly in the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. The 2001 attacks on the Indian Parliament and the 2008 Mumbai attacks were carried out by individuals who had studied in extremist madrasas. The Pakistani government’s efforts to regulate the madrasa sector have been motivated in part by security concerns. The National Action Plan adopted after the 2014 Peshawar school massacre included commitments to reform the madrasa system. Implementation has been limited. The security dimension adds urgency to the education reform agenda but also complicates the politics of reform by introducing national security considerations into an already contentious policy area.

Pakistan’s education crisis has a particularly severe impact on girls. Girls account for over 60 per cent of out-of-school children in Pakistan. The gap widens at higher levels of education: girls’ enrolment in secondary school is less than 50 per cent of boys’. The reasons are complex and deeply rooted in Pakistan’s social structure. Poverty, early marriage, cultural norms that prioritise boys’ education, and security concerns in conflict-affected regions all contribute to keeping girls out of school. The consequences are intergenerational: educated mothers are more likely to send their children to school, creating a cycle of educational attainment that spans generations. Pakistan cannot achieve its development potential when half of its population is denied equal access to education.

The quality of teaching in Pakistan’s public schools is a critical constraint on learning outcomes. Many teachers in government schools lack basic qualifications in the subjects they teach. Teacher absenteeism rates are estimated at 15 to 20 per cent, meaning that on any given day, one in five teachers is not in the classroom. The teacher training system is inadequate, with limited practical training, outdated curricula, and weak quality assurance. The accountability mechanisms for teacher performance are ineffective. Improving teacher quality is the single most important intervention for improving learning outcomes in Pakistan. But teacher reform is politically difficult, as teachers’ unions are powerful and teacher accountability is a contentious issue in Pakistan’s political landscape.

Technology offers new opportunities for addressing Pakistan’s education crisis. The Punjab province’s Public-Private Partnership programme has brought private-sector management to hundreds of public schools, demonstrating that private operation can improve learning outcomes at lower cost than traditional public provision. The use of mobile phones for educational content delivery has expanded access in remote areas where schools are not available. Digital learning platforms provide access to high-quality educational content. The EdTech sector in Pakistan has grown significantly, attracting investment from international donors and venture capital funds. However, technology-enabled learning faces significant constraints, including limited internet penetration in rural areas, unreliable electricity supply, and the digital literacy gap among parents and teachers.

Article 25-A of Pakistan’s Constitution, inserted by the 18th Amendment in 2010, guarantees free and compulsory education to all children aged five to sixteen. The constitutional obligation has not been fulfilled. The government’s own statistics show that over 40 per cent of primary-age children are not in school. The gap between constitutional promise and delivery reflects a broader failure of state capacity and political will. The education emergency is not merely a failure of policy but a failure of the state to fulfil its most basic obligations to its citizens. The constitutional obligation provides a legal framework for advocacy and litigation, but the enforcement of the right to education remains elusive.

The inadequacy of public education has led to an explosion of private schooling in Pakistan. Private schools now educate over 40 per cent of children in urban areas, and their share is growing. The private education sector ranges from elite international schools serving the wealthy to low-cost schools serving poor communities. The low-cost private school model has demonstrated that it is possible to provide quality education at affordable prices. However, the growth of private education has created a two-tier system in which quality depends on ability to pay, exacerbating inequality and undermining the social cohesion that public education is supposed to promote. The state must not only improve public education but also regulate the private sector to ensure minimum quality standards and prevent discrimination.

Pakistan’s literacy rate of approximately 60 per cent is one of the lowest in South Asia and masks significant regional and gender disparities. The literacy rate for women in Balochistan is below 25 per cent. The literacy rate for urban males in Punjab exceeds 80 per cent. The gap between official literacy statistics and actual functional literacy is substantial: many who are counted as literate can write their names but cannot read a simple newspaper article. The literacy rate trap — in which low literacy perpetuates low demand for education, which perpetuates low literacy — is one of the most difficult challenges facing Pakistan’s education system. Breaking out of this trap requires not only expanding access to education but also improving the quality of education and creating economic opportunities that reward literacy.

Pakistan spends approximately 2.4 per cent of GDP on education, one of the lowest rates in the world and well below the 4 per cent recommended by UNESCO. The federal education budget for fiscal year 2025-2026 is approximately 850 billion rupees, of which over 80 per cent is consumed by teacher salaries. The resources available for textbooks, materials, infrastructure, and teacher training are minimal. The budget allocation has declined in real terms over the past decade. Pakistan spends more on defence than on education, more on debt service than on education, and more on subsidies for energy consumption than on education. The budget allocation reflects the political priorities of the state, and those priorities do not include education.