Expert Comment — Europe Programme
15 March 2026
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered what many described as a “revolution” in European defence spending. Germany announced a €100 billion special fund (the Zeitenwende). Denmark abandoned its opt-out from EU defence cooperation. Poland announced plans to more than double the size of its army. Four years later, the promised revolution has been partially delivered, but the gap between Europe’s defence ambitions and its actual capabilities remains substantial and, in some areas, is widening.
The Spending Numbers
The headline numbers are impressive. According to NATO estimates, European allies and Canada added an additional $280 billion to defence budgets between 2022 and 2025, a real-terms increase of approximately 30 per cent. Eleven European allies are expected to meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target in 2025, compared to only three in 2021. Germany’s defence budget, including the special fund, will reach 2.1 per cent of GDP in 2026 — a historic high for Europe’s largest economy.