Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-03-25 TIn 2018, the year before the US-China trade war began, trade between the United States and China exceeded $660 billion. By 2025, it had fallen to approximately $520 billion, a decline of over 20 per cent. Over the same period, trade between the United States and its allies in
Expert Comment — Europe Programme 15 March 2026 Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered what many described as a “revolution” in European defence spending. Germany announced a €100 billion special fund (the Zeitenwende). Denmark abandoned its opt-out from EU defence cooperation. Poland announced plans to more than double the size of its
European Defence Spending After Ukraine: The Gap Between Promises and Capabilities Read More »
Expert Comment — East Asia Programme 9 March 2026 China’s property crisis is not a financial event. It is a structural transformation that is reshaping the economic model that has driven Chinese growth for two decades. The collapse of Evergrande in late 2021 was not the beginning of the crisis but a symptom of a
Expert Comment — South Asia Programme 2026-02-20 IIn the rural districts of southern Punjab and northern Sindh, a parallel education system operates largely invisible to the Pakistani state and the international community. An estimated 3.5 million children attend madrasas, religious seminaries where the curriculum is dominated by Islamic studies. While some madrasas provide a rigorous
Expert Comment — Europe Programme 18 February 2026 The European Union’s decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova in December 2024 marked a historic turning point in the history of European integration. For the first time since the Eastern enlargement of 2004-2007, the EU has made a credible commitment to expanding eastward. But
EU Enlargement in 2026: Ukraine, the Balkans and the Future of European Integration Read More »
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 9 February 2026 Iran’s nuclear programme has reached a threshold that the international community has spent two decades trying to prevent. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent quarterly report, Iran now possesses enriched uranium sufficient, if further enriched to 90 per cent, for multiple nuclear devices.
Beyond the Uranium Centrifuge: Iran’s Nuclear Calculus and the Coming Diplomatic Endgame Read More »
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-02-05 TWhen the first reactor at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant begins commercial operation in 2026, every Turkish household and business will start paying a hidden tax that will persist for 15 years. The plant’s electricity will be purchased at a guaranteed price of 12.35 US cents per kilowatt-hour. The
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 26 January 2026 Turkey’s economic narrative has been one of the most dramatic in emerging markets. From the growth miracle of the 2000s to the currency crises of the 2020s, the country now stands at a crossroads. The return to orthodox monetary policy under Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan and her
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 12 January 2026 Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western analysts have repeatedly predicted the imminent collapse of the Russian economy. It has not happened. Russia’s GDP contracted by just 2.1 per cent in 2022, returned to modest growth in 2023-2024, and the International Monetary Fund projects
Beyond the Rouble: Why Russia’s War Economy Is Headed for a Structural Reckoning in 2027 Read More »
Expert Comment — Europe Programme 2026-01-12 IOn February 24, 2023, one year to the day after Russia invaded Ukraine, BASF announced a decision that would have been unthinkable five years earlier. The world’s largest chemical company, founded in 1865 and headquartered in Ludwigshafen ever since, would permanently close several of its most energy-intensive plants at
