Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-06-01 TThe G7 price cap on Russian oil, introduced in December 2022, was designed to achieve two objectives simultaneously: reduce Russia’s oil revenue to constrain its ability to finance the war in Ukraine, while maintaining Russian oil on global markets to prevent a supply shock that would drive up global […]
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 2026-05-05 TThe International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear programme contains a statistic that should alarm every member of the non-proliferation regime. Iran now possesses over 200 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, a level that has no credible civilian application and that
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 2026-05-05 TThe International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear programme contains a number that tells the entire story: 206.4 kilograms. That is the amount of uranium Iran has enriched to 60 per cent U-235, a level that has no credible civilian application and that represents
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-04-22 TThe Northern Sea Route has been described as the Suez Canal of the twenty-first century, a trans-Arctic shipping lane that will transform global trade by reducing the distance between Asia and Europe by 30 to 40 per cent. The route runs from Murmansk on Russia’s Barents Sea coast through
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-04-22 TThe Northern Sea Route runs from Murmansk on Russia’s Barents Sea coast through the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait. At approximately 6,000 nautical miles between Rotterdam and Shanghai, it is roughly 4,000 nautical miles shorter than the
Expert Comment — Pacific Programme 2026-04-08 TWhen Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the AUKUS submarine pathway in March 2023, he described it as “the single biggest investment in Australia’s defence capability in our history.” The numbers support the claim. The total cost of acquiring and operating nuclear-powered submarines over the next thirty years is estimated
Expert Comment — Pacific Programme 2026-04-08 TAustralia’s nuclear submarine programme, the most expensive defence project in the country’s history at over $300 billion, faces a fundamental constraint that no amount of money can quickly solve. The programme requires a workforce of 5,000 to 7,000 nuclear-qualified engineers, technicians, welders, and quality assurance specialists. Australia’s nuclear industry
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-03-25 TFor three decades after the end of the Cold War, the global economy moved in a single direction: toward greater integration, lower barriers, and deeper interdependence. Trade grew faster than output, financial flows expanded across borders, and supply chains stretched around the world. This era of hyperglobalisation reached its
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-03-25 TIn 2018, the year before the US-China trade war began, trade between the United States and China exceeded $660 billion. By 2025, it had fallen to approximately $520 billion, a decline of over 20 per cent. Over the same period, trade between the United States and its allies in
Expert Comment — Europe Programme 15 March 2026 Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered what many described as a “revolution” in European defence spending. Germany announced a €100 billion special fund (the Zeitenwende). Denmark abandoned its opt-out from EU defence cooperation. Poland announced plans to more than double the size of its
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