Expert Comment — East Asia Programme 2026-07-09 TThe Taiwan Strait is the most dangerous flashpoint in the international system. The combination of unresolved territorial claims, military build up on both sides, and nationalist sentiment on both sides of the strait creates a volatile mix that could easily escalate into armed conflict. In October 2025, the
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026 07 08 TThe global debt crisis that began with Sri Lanka’s default in 2022 has spread to encompass 52 developing countries. Total developing country external debt has reached $3.9 trillion, and debt service payments absorb an increasing share of government revenues. For the first time in history, developing countries
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026 07 07 HHydrogen has been called the fuel of the future for decades, but the future has always remained just out of reach. That may finally be changing. Japan and Germany have committed over $30 billion each to hydrogen development. South Korea, the European Union, and the United States
Expert Comment — East Asia Programme 2026 07 05 SSouth Korea’s defence industry has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once a net importer of almost all its major weapons systems, Korea has emerged as one of the world’s fastest growing arms exporters. In 2025, Korean defence exports reached approximately $18 billion, up from $5 billion in
Expert Comment — Pacific Programme 2026 07 03 TThe AUKUS partnership, announced in September 2021, represents the most significant shift in Australia’s defence posture since the ANZUS alliance was formed in 1951. The centrepiece of the agreement is Australia’s acquisition of nuclear powered submarines, a capability that only six other nations possess. The total cost
Expert Comment — East Asia Programme 2026-07-01 JJapan’s population declined by 800,000 in 2025, the largest single year drop ever recorded. The total population now stands at 123.8 million, down from a peak of 128.5 million in 2008. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.15, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The government has
Expert Comment — Global Programme 2026-06-01 TThe G7 price cap on Russian oil, introduced in December 2022, was designed to reduce Russia’s oil revenue while maintaining Russian oil on global markets. The mechanism prohibits Western insurance, shipping, and financial services from facilitating Russian oil sales above the cap of $60 per barrel. The elegant logic
Expert Comment — Middle East Programme 2026-05-05 TThe International Atomic Energy Agency’s most recent quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear programme contains a number that tells the entire story: 206.4 kilograms. That is the amount of uranium Iran has enriched to 60 per cent U-235, a level that has no credible civilian application and that represents
Expert Comment — Eurasia Programme 2026-04-22 TThe Northern Sea Route runs from Murmansk on Russia’s Barents Sea coast through the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait. At approximately 6,000 nautical miles between Rotterdam and Shanghai, it is roughly 4,000 nautical miles shorter than the
Expert Comment — Pacific Programme 2026-04-08 TAustralia’s nuclear submarine programme, the most expensive defence project in the country’s history at over $300 billion, faces a fundamental constraint that no amount of money can quickly solve. The programme requires a workforce of 5,000 to 7,000 nuclear-qualified engineers, technicians, welders, and quality assurance specialists. Australia’s nuclear industry
